“Did it pass, Brian?”
“No way, Jose“
From the Referendum Commission’s website.
What happens if you Vote NO?
If a majority of the voters vote “no” then the Constitution will not be changed and Ireland may not ratify the Treaty. The Treaty will come into effect only if it is ratified by all [my emphasis] Member States. The EU would continue to operate under its present rules.
I took the “may not” above as a prohibition, not a probability. In light of the outpourings of this week’s EU summit – specifically that ratification should continue and that Lisbon is not dead – either it is widely envisaged that we will have a second referendum on the same treaty (maybe calling it the Dublin Treaty to scoop some extra votes – my suggestion) or the plan is to implement Lisbon without Ireland ratifying it.
Indeed this second possibility has been explicitly mooted. That contradicts the quoted paragraph. The Referendum Commission were, it seems, speculating somewhat in their assertion.
That should be borne in mind when assessing their information during future polls.
Anyone up for a second referendum? Anyone? I promise it’ll be nice. Just like Nice in fact.